Goldman Sachs Raises 2025 Aluminum and Copper Price Forecasts Amid Growing Chinese Demand

Bright Copper Wire

Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 aluminum and copper price forecasts upward, citing robust demand growth in China—the world’s largest consumer of both metals—as a key driver. The investment bank increased its 2025 forecast for aluminum’s average price from $2,540 to $2,700 per ton. It also adjusted its copper price forecast slightly, moving it from $10,100 to $10,160 per ton. This adjustment reflects expectations that China’s recent economic initiatives will stimulate industrial activity and expand the country’s infrastructure, energy transition, and technology sectors.

Background on China’s Economic Stimulus Measures

Goldman Sachs’ revised forecasts come in response to China’s recent economic stimulus efforts, which are intended to revitalize its economy amid slowing growth. The Chinese government has unveiled policies designed to boost infrastructure spending, support property markets, and accelerate green energy transitions. These measures are expected to raise demand for industrial metals like aluminum and copper, both essential for construction, manufacturing, and renewable energy infrastructure.

Demand Surge in Key Sectors

Several key sectors within China are expected to drive heightened demand for these metals. The property and construction industries account for a large portion of China’s aluminum and copper consumption. Following years of slowing growth, China’s government has implemented support policies for the real estate sector, including easing mortgage requirements and increasing financing channels for developers. These changes are anticipated to reignite property investment, raising the need for aluminum in building materials and copper for electrical wiring.

The green energy transition is another major demand driver for copper and aluminum. China, which has pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, continues to invest heavily in renewable energy projects. Copper is a critical component in renewable energy systems, used in wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicle (EV) production. Aluminum’s role is also expanding as a lightweight, corrosion-resistant material in electric vehicle frames and batteries. Goldman Sachs expects these sectors to create a sustained increase in demand for these metals over the next few years.

Broader Market Implications

As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s influence on global commodity markets is substantial. Analysts suggest that increased demand from China could drive prices higher globally, impacting industries reliant on aluminum and copper. Higher metal prices are likely to lead to cost increases in the global automotive, electronics, and renewable energy sectors, potentially affecting production costs and consumer prices.

Goldman Sachs’ revised forecasts reflect a cautious optimism about China’s economic resilience and the long-term growth potential in industrial metals. With both demand and supply dynamics at play, investors are closely monitoring these markets for signs of continued upward price pressure as we approach 2025.