SUNSHINE RecycleFlash Weekly: April 14-18, 2025

April 18, 2025

Citi Raises Three-Month Gold Price Target to $3,500 per Ounce

Citi Research raised its gold price target for the next three months to $3,500 per ounce from $3,200, led by fresh buying from Chinese insurers and safe-haven flows amid tariff risks and market weakness, it said in a note on Thursday. China’s recent move to let 10 insurers allocate up to 1% of their total assets to gold could generate annual demand of around 255 tonnes, equal to roughly a quarter of total global central bank buying, Citi said. (Source: Reuters)

Pan American Silver Price Target Raised to $32 from $28.50 at Scotiabank

Scotiabank raised the firm’s price target on Pan American Silver (PAAS) to $32 from $28.50 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The firm has a positive outlook on the Gold & Precious Minerals sector, the analyst tells investors. The firm expects consolidation to continue into 2025, with heightened marketing & acquisition activity enabling companies to optimize their asset portfolios. (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Citi Sees Copper Prices Falling Slower as U.S. Tariffs Ease

Citi forecast on Tuesday a slower drop in copper prices over the next three months, noting that U.S. President Donald Trump relaxed tariffs over the past week, China has bought on dips, and scrap supply remains tight due to U.S. stockpiling. “All point to a more gradual copper price decline through 2Q’25 versus the deeper and faster investor sell-off we previously anticipated, with funds still positioned net bullish,” Citi added in a note. The investment bank raised its three-month copper forecast to $8,800 per tonne. On April 7, it reduced its forecast to $8,000 following Trump’s tariff announcements. The bank estimated average copper prices of $9,000 per tonne in the second quarter. (Source: Reuters)

Nucor Cuts Prices for Hot Rolled Coils for the First Time Since the Beginning of the Year

For the first time since the beginning of the year, the US steel company Nucor has announced a reduction in the weekly spot price (CSP) for hot rolled coil (HRC). Offers for the current week dropped by $5/t to $930 per short tonne for all production facilities except California Steel Industries (CSI), where the price is $990/t. The company reduced its offer after refraining from adjustments for two weeks. As a result, the highest price since the beginning of the year was reached on March 24 at $935/t ($995/t for CSI) and lasted until April 13. The overall increase in CSP at Nucor’s HRC since the beginning of the year is estimated at $180 per short ton. The lead time for orders is estimated at 3-5 weeks. According to SMU, spot prices for hot-rolled coils ranged from $840 to $970 per tonne as of April 8. According to Kallanish, domestic HRC prices in the US were in the range of $950-1000/t. Developments continue to unfold around the import restrictions imposed by President Donald Trump, including reciprocal tariffs and preliminary announcements of tariffs targeting the steel, automotive, Canada, Mexico and China. Tariff pressure is expected to support price growth next week. (Source: GMK Center)

Rio Tinto and AMG Metals & Materials to Assess Low-Carbon Aluminium Project in India

Rio Tinto and AMG Metals & Materials (AMG M&M), an energy transition solutions provider, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to jointly assess the feasibility of developing an integrated low-carbon aluminium project powered by renewable energy in India. AMG M&M is promoted by the two founders of Greenko and AM Green. Together, the parties will consider the potential development of up to a 1 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) primary aluminium smelter and 2 Mtpa of alumina production, both powered by renewable wind and solar energy firmed by pumped hydro storage. The development will comprise a study to evaluate a potential first phase 500,000 tonnes per annum primary aluminium smelter in a favourable location in India. (Source: Business Wire)

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel to Invest ₹2.6 Lakh Crore to Expand Capacity in India

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel (AM-NS) has revealed plans for a major ₹2.6 lakh crore (about $30 billion) investment in India over the next decade to significantly ramp up its steel production capacity. Currently producing 9.6 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), the joint venture aims to increase this to 15.6 MTPA by the end of the fiscal year, with a long-term goal of reaching 40 MTPA. AM-NS sees substantial growth potential in India, noting that the country’s per capita steel consumption is much lower than global averages. At around 94 kg per capita, India is far behind countries like China (660-670 kg), the US (600-700 kg), Japan (800-900 kg), and South Korea (1,100 kg). AM-NS views this disparity as a major opportunity for expansion. The investment supports India’s infrastructure development under the ‘Viksit Bharat’ program, which aims for significant economic growth by 2047. Despite global trade uncertainties, including US tariff decisions, AM-NS remains optimistic about India’s economic future. (Source: The Times of India)

Aqua Metals Develops Nickel Carbonate Product to Expand Market Reach and Maximize Process Efficiency

Aqua Metals announced the development of a new product—nickel carbonate—expanding the company’s portfolio of high-value battery metal compounds and demonstrating the adaptability of its patented AquaRefining™ process. The company recently announced its achievements in developing a novel recycling process for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and continues to diversify both its feedstock and product capabilities. The company’s innovative process now allows for recovery and conversion into high-purity nickel carbonate, a material increasingly in demand across multiple regions globally, where carbonate forms are high value for battery and metallurgical applications. (Source: Aqua Metals)

Turkish-Owned Shahi Steel Opens Plant in Bosnia

Shahi Steel, the Bosnian unit of Turkish steel structures manufacturer Sahi Celik, has opened a production plant in the city of Gradacac, the chamber of economy of Tuzla Canton (KPKT), said on Wednesday. Shahi Steel’s registered primary business activities are production of industrial steel constructions and objects, housing containers and prefabricated houses, KPKT said in a press release. KPKT listed several reasons for the opening of the plant in Gradacac: the city’s favorable geographical location, developed infrastructure, a large number of available industrial zones, as well as a long-standing tradition of industrial production, educated and qualified workforce, and availability of natural resources. Gradacac mayor Hajrudin Mehanovic said that this investment in the city’s economy will be an introduction to attracting more companies from Turkey. (Source: SeeNews)

Britain Secures Fuel Shipment to Keep Its Last Steel Blast Furnaces Alight

Britain said on Tuesday it could keep the country’s last steel blast furnaces burning for at least the next few weeks after securing a delivery of fuel—the latest step in a last-gasp government scramble to save domestic virgin steel production. The government had been racing to secure enough coking coal and iron ore to keep the loss-making furnaces running after passing emergency laws on Saturday to take operational control of the site in northeastern England from Chinese owners Jingye Group. ( Source: Reuters)

JSW Steel to Invest Rs 50,000 Cr for 10 Mtpa Green Steel Capacity for European Market

JSW Steel will be investing over Rs 50,000 crore to create 10 million tonnes per annum of green steel capacity at a plant near the country’s financial capital, a top official said on Tuesday. “We will be investing Rs 50,000-60,000 crore for the green steel capacity,” Jindal told reporters on the sidelines of an event here. In March, the company had announced plans to increase the green steel capacity at Salav to 4 MTPA in phases. The investment is necessitated because of a European mandate on green steel, and Jindal said the 10 MTPA capacity will emit a fifth of the carbon as used by conventional plants currently. (Source: The Economic Times)

International Paper in Talks to Divest Five Plants in Europe

International Paper said on Monday it has entered into exclusive negotiations with a family-owned company to sell its five corrugated box plants in Europe to meet the regulatory commitments for the acquisition of UK rival DS Smith. The company, which has been looking to expand its presence in the paper and packaging sector in Europe, said it would divest three plants in France, and one each in Portugal and Spain to PALM, which produces container boards. The companies expect to sign a definitive share purchase deal, following the required French works council procedures, with closing expected by the end of second quarter of fiscal 2025, International Paper said. In January, International Paper secured EU’s clearance for its 5.8-billion-pound ($7.2 billion) acquisition of DS Smith and had vowed to sell certain assets to address competition concerns. The sale of the five plants would fulfill all obligations to the European Commission related to the acquisition, International Paper said. (Source: Reuters)

BHP Warns of Trade War Fallout as It Ramps up Copper Output

BHP Group Ltd. is warning US President Donald Trump’s tariff spree could trigger a global economic slowdown and challenge trade flows, as the world’s biggest miner posted a solid quarterly production performance for key commodities including copper and iron ore. The global commodities market has been one of the sectors most exposed to the fallout from Trump’s burgeoning trade war. That could complicate Henry’s agenda to grow BHP’s holdings of what he calls “future facing commodities”—copper and potash. The drive has been backed by revenue derived from the miner’s long-standing iron ore business, which still accounts for more than half of its earnings. BHP’s production of copper in 2025’s first three months climbed 10%, boosted by a ramp of of its Escondida operations in Chile, it said. Meanwhile, output from its Australian iron ore projects was steady at 68.1 million tons, and it kept its full-year guidance for the steel-making material unchanged. (Source: Bloomberg News)

Turkey Exhausts a Number of EU Steel Import Quotas for Q2

As of April 11, according to the EC, Turkey has exhausted its quotas for rebar (94,398 tons), wire rod (98,054 tons), hollow sections (83,949 tons) and some types of flat products. Among other things, the entire quota of 20,955 tons for metal-coated sheets (4B) allocated to this country in the category “other countries” was also used. In addition, 99.6% of the quota for gas pipes (49,432 tons) was selected. Vietnam has exhausted its quota for metal-coated sheets (4B) —20,955 tons, and South Korea—for tin products (16,105 tons). India also chose to allocate volumes for organic coated sheets (78,591 tons) and stainless bars and light profiles (31,733 tons). The European Commission has confirmed that it will tighten restrictions on steel imports starting in April this year to protect the European steel industry. In particular, new supply limits were introduced for residual quotas (quotas of “other countries”) for 16 product categories—13-30% per country, depending on the imported product. The EU also reduced the annual liberalization rate (annual increase in tariff quota) from 1% to 0.1%, further limiting the total amount of steel that can be imported into the bloc duty-free. In addition, countries will no longer be able to rely on the entire volume of unused quotas from other countries, including Russia and Belarus. The EC decided to keep only 35% of the sanctioned volumes for certain categories of imports. (Source: GMK Center)

Alcoa Reports $20 Million Tariff Hit on Imports from Canada

Alcoa Corp., the largest US aluminum producer, said President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on metal imports has cost the company $20 million since the duties went into effect. The Pittsburgh-based company incurred the costs on imports of aluminum from Canada, its largest metal-producing region. The disclosure is one of the first indications that US companies are being adversely affected by the Trump administration’s trade war. Alcoa, in a statement, said it has “engaged with customers, suppliers and logistics companies to avoid supply disruption.” The aluminum producer said throughout the beginning of the year it was actively communicating with administrations, governments and policy makers regarding the impact of tariffs on trade. Chief Executive Officer Bill Oplinger warned investors in February that Trump’s metal import duties would put about 100,000 US jobs at risk. (Source: Bloomberg News)

Indonesia Hikes Mining Royalties to Fund Prabowo Policies

Indonesia has raised the royalty rate to be paid by nickel, tin and other metal producers as the government searches for ways to fund President Prabowo Subianto’s ambitious but costly priority policies. The changes to be introduced largely mirror those touted in a public consultation last month, with formerly flat levies on output now rising with commodity prices, according to a regulation document seen by Bloomberg and confirmed by people familiar with the matter. They asked not to be named as the details aren’t yet public. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, which regulates mining, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. According to the document, a flat levy of 10% on nickel ore production will be replaced with taxes varying from 14% to 19%, depending on price levels determined by the government. Lower grade ore that’s then processed into battery-grade nickel will pay a smaller 2% royalty. (Source: Bloomberg News)

Trump Supporter Prince Reaches Deal with Congo to Help Secure Mineral Wealth

Prominent Trump supporter Erik Prince has agreed to help Democratic Republic of Congo secure and tax its vast mineral wealth, according to two sources close to the private security executive, a Congolese government official and two diplomats. The agreement, aimed at reaping more revenue from an industry marred by smuggling and corruption, was reached before Rwanda-backed M23 rebels launched a major offensive in January that has seen them seize eastern Congo’s two largest cities. (Source: Reuters)